SHAH ALAM: Who will be the next Home and Defence ministers? As you are aware, no coalition or parties won enough seats in the general election, yesterday, to form the government. And as you are aware, most of the leaders are now scrambling to get enough support for them to meet the King to consent for the formation of the government.
The King this afternoon has asked the coalition leaders to present themselves at Istana Negara on November 21, to show proof they have the majority support to form the next government.
We can surmise that both Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional (PN) – the coalitions with the most parliamentarians – will be talking with the leaders in Sabah and Sarawak – apart from the other parties – to form the next government.
I believe this is the opportunity for either coalition to appoint home and defence ministers from Sabah and Sarawak. The reason is simple, the territories are the ones facing the most security challenges in the nation. If appointed, it will be incumbent for them, to ensure the government provide the best tools for the security forces stationed in Sabah and Sarawak to meet the security challenges. Be it fighter jets, ships and armoured vehicles.
One of them could also be made the deputy prime minister as a sweetener. I have no individual parliamentarians in mind but getting ones below 50 years old would the first criteria.
Furthermore, with two Sabahan and Sarawakian already holding the two national security porfolios, the new cabinet could be made smaller, with twenty as the target. I understand coalition building make it harder to make a smaller cabinet, but I think the smaller the better anyhow.
It is also interesting to note that the former home and defence ministers – who competed in the GE15 – won their respective constituencies though it is likely most of them would not be eager to return to their former jobs.
Despite my suggestions above, I believe that if PN got the nod to form the next government, new Ketereh MP Major General (rtd) Khlir Mohd Nor may well be the candidate for Jalan Padang Tembak. Khlir retired as the Army Chief of Staff several years back. That said I am not too keen on having a former general nor other ranks (there are several parliamentarians who are veterans also) taking charge of the Defence Ministry.
Former Home Minister Hamzah Zainuddin who won the Larut seat, is odds-on favourite to return to his old job.
If PH got the numbers, I am pretty sure Mat Sabu will want his old job back, though many would be aghast with the decision if it happened. Which means that it will better for PH to appoint parliamentarians from Sabah and Sarawak as defence ministers.
— Malaysian Defence
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If PN get to form the gov and they continue with the senior minister post which is akin to ID/SG co-ordinating minister position. With the senior minister for defense is also responsible for internal security, external defense & diplomacy.
Then Major General (rtd) Khlir Mohd Nor would probably be the politically correct person to head the coordinating minister post as he probably understand a wee bit more about the subject matter as well as general public acceptance then the average PAS representative.
GPS would probably want to continue getting their hand on the infrastructure portfolio as it provided fast tangible results to show to their voters as well as inline with GPS business interest.
Hopefully someone who have a military background.
Qamarul - "Hopefully someone who have a military background"
He needs several traits/qualities; not just a military background. Having a military background doesn't necessarily mean he will be a sound Minister. Ultimately as a Minister he can't make recommendations but can't drive overall policy. A lot will still depend on his boss; how much focus or interest will the boss have towards defence or will he be preoccupied with other things?
Another factor at play is the defence policy; what we do and how we do it will still be based on the defence policy; one which places huge importance on the local industry and other forms of national interests.
We can only hope that programmes already approved for funding will proceed without lengthy bureaucratic delays.
Personally I'm more worried about who will be the next PM!
Indeed we're in the worst possible situation going into the worst time that this 21st century will have seen; a very real US and thus the world's global recession. China facing its own subprime crisis, Russia with its war, and US with the ever increasing inflation and recently with the collapse of billions $ in crypto. Heading into this maelstrom with a coalition govt with parties that hate each other is a recipe for an early disaster and a whole lot more byelections. Whatmore if PN+BN+GPS were to takeover, PH, as the largest bloc, would not wear it and will seek to destabilise that unity Govt in order to take its, arguably, rightful place on the seat. In all this, defence is probably the last thing that should be on our minds. I'm more worried what it will do to the economy. No point wishing for nice shiny toys but not having the money to buy them!
Joker had in the dark knight said "Nobody panics when things go according to plan. Even if the plan is horrifying"
The upcoming global recession is pretty much on plan. The feds had raise interest like crazy in order to squashed the inflation crisis and thus it's expected that a recession would occur next year. The bank negara had said we won't be in a technical recession probably because OPEC+ is cutting supplies accordingly as they would like to avoid the 08 oil shooks that one of the factor for the Arab springs.
Some moon ago, it is expected that 0.3% of population would die due to COVID so the rest 99.7% can live a normal live and here we are living a normal life by sacrificing millions.
The problem with PH is DAP. They are too right leaning from anti taxation, austerity loving,anti social equality for other parties taste. It hard for them to be in a coalition with another. Thus he biggest risk to a PN coalition gov (if get to form gov) comes from within as it has been for the last 3 years.
Chinese economy tanking is also kinda expected. Their economy & demographic situation is almost the same as the Japanese economy were in the 90s. They pretty much sign their own plaza accord and now It is expected that they going to go for prolonged stagflation.
Due to internal politics & rivalry US is expected to champions deglobalization. Tengku Zafrul had during the straits times forum & davos outline the upcoming strategy.
Thus The DWP acquisition plan would likely go on as usual. The gov up until recently only ordering asset, those assets would only be in inventory by the next RMK. Basically it up to the gov in 2025 to figure out how exactly they going to pay for what the last gov orders.
The external security outlook for MY remain the same. The biggest risk comes from multi domain high intensity but short conflicts mostly driven by the instabilities of China domestic issue & Washington ambition rather than an all out hotwar.
If PH proceed to make a proper coalition with BN,
Then DS Ahmad Zahid and DS Ismail Sabri maybe will take positions
But the bargaining dealingS among groups of PN, PH and BN is still going on..
Zahid will not take any government position until his court case is resolve - in the next few months or so - whether in his favour or not.
Zaft - "Joker had in the dark knight said “Nobody panics when things go according to plan. Even if the plan is horrifying"
What did Bud Spencer and Elmo
Elmer Fudd say about perpetually being buggered in every orfice because one has an congenital inability and unwillingness to learn from previous mistakes?
Zaft - "The biggest risk comes from multi domain high intensity but short conflicts mostly driven by the instabilities of China domestic issue & Washington ambition rather than an all out hotwar"
To get to reality; "China domestic issue & Washington ambition" does not have a direct adverse bearing on us. The greatest risk is that the MAF faces a huge challenge in meeting peacetime operational requirements and is overmatched by countries which have longstanding unresolved territorial disputes with us; which at times nearly went hot.
"To get to reality; “China domestic issue & Washington ambition” does not have a direct adverse bearing on us"
As always never take things in a vacuum losing sight of the bigger picture.
Asean is along with Taiwan is the stage where the 2 giant plan for a brawl. Oz military briefing (well at least one that available on YouTube) seem to indicate the important of having capabilities to project power into the maritime south east Asia.
MY do have an 'unresolved territorial disputes' with China together with other asean states. Thought ASEAN states would likely not react to an action of another ASEAN state publicly to sells off the idea of ASEAN unity.
Thus The gov are unlikely to called upon RMN to send their gunboat to face a TNI-AL gunboat. They would just likely make a phone calls. If RMn are called in, it's to face off PLAN.
"The greatest risk is that the MAF faces a huge challenge in meeting peacetime operational requirements"
Says what you want about a certain fanboys which has many names. He is correct that MMEA is the likely agency going to be responsible for Mostly peacetime operations. MmEA along with other CG in the region are Established in the 2000 to manage & de-escalate what was then a risk now a reality of grey zone conflict in SCS.
"Elmer Fudd say about perpetually being buggered in every orfice because one has an congenital inability and unwillingness to learn from previous mistakes?"
We are learning. RMN afterall had stop trying to acquired 24 gunboat to do mmea job for them & ships build in the most random order rather than batch purchases. I say that's quite a win.
Zaft - "As always never take things in a vacuum losing sight of the bigger picture"
That sounds familiar.
Zaft - "Asean is along with Taiwan is the stage where the 2 giant plan for a brawl"
Well thanks for the update but a clash over Taiwan doesn't automatically draw ASEAN in.
Zaft - "Says what you want about a certain fanboys which has many names.
It would appear so.
Zaft - "He is correct that MMEA is the likely agency going to be responsible for Mostly peacetime operations"
There are certain things the RMN would do and certain things the MMEA would do. It depends on the context: the circumstances.
Zaft - "We are learning. RMN afterall had stop trying to acquired 24 gunboat to do mmea job for them"
Sorry but that is nonsense. The RMN never tried to do the MMEA's job. What it has and is doing is carry a lot of the burden because the MMEA is at present unable the fully carry out all it's assigned to do. As it stands there is no other agency which can help fill.In the void.
Zaft- "RMn are called in, it’s to face off PLAN."
In a non war situation. Unless things get really hot: we are unlikely to get in a situation where we face off the PLA; if we did it would be part of a coalition.
P.S
- The RMN never tried to acquire "gunboats". It's in a position where it has guns armed ships because of reasons well known: not out of design.
- This notion that the RMN is reluctant to fully enable the MMEA to do its job or wants to retain the peacetime constabulary role is incorrect.
- A "gunboat" [being a popular term with some] traditionally signifies a ship in the 400-600 tonne displacement category which undertakes low threat operations in a riverine or shallow setting. An OPV armed only with guns and operating along the continental shelf or in other areas does not fall in the "gunboat" category.
- Even if Father Christmas were to suddenly gift the MMEA 5 OPVs the MMEA is still a long way from being able to assume all its responsibilities; it has manpower issues; an insufficient shore support infrastructure, etc. It's not just the hardware.
There is a,clear division of responsibility: if there is a situation where an MMEA ship on station is punching above its weight level then the RNN will be called in.