SHAH ALAM: Oz prepares for post Covid world. Australia is preparing to spend AUS$270 billion (RM798 billion) in the next decade to “prepare for a post-COVID world that is poorer, more dangerous and more disorderly. Australian PM Scott Morrison when announcing the 2020 Defence Strategic Update and 2020 Force Structure Plan, announced that the new funding commitment was on top of the 2016 funding plan of AUS$175 billion.
The plan.
The Strategic Update sets out the challenges in Australia’s strategic environment and their implications for Defence planning. It provides a new strategic policy framework to ensure Australia is able – and is understood as willing – to deploy military power to shape our environment, deter actions against our interests and, when required, respond with military force.
While the drivers of change identified in the 2016 Defence White Paper persist, they have accelerated faster than anticipated. Australia now faces an environment of increasing strategic competition; the introduction of more capable military systems enabled by technological change; and the increasingly aggressive use of diverse grey-zone tactics to coerce states under the threshold for a conventional military response.
According to the Australian:
The update includes a $75bn expansion to maritime forces to “provide greater capability for anti-submarine warfare, sealift, border security, maritime patrol, aerial warfare, area denial and undersea warfare”.Between $168bn and $183bn will be spent on upgrades to Navy and Army fleets and $5bn-$7bn on undersea surveillance systems including hi-tech sensors. Between $6.2bn and $9.3bn will also be spent on developing “high speed long range strike” and hypersonic missile technology as well as an estimated $400m-$500m in long-range maritime strike missiles, including the joint strike missile capable of low level flight up to 500km.
A further $10bn-$17bn investment will be made in fighter aircraft, signalling the possible expansion of the JSF acquisition program, and $5bn for an expanded long range air launched strike capability. A $1bn investment will be made in Operational Radar Network expansion, while $70bn will be spent on increased combat power for army and land based forces, drone vehicles and long range rocket artillery.
The specific platforms have yet to be decided and would need to go through a thorough defence procurement process.
— Malaysian Defence
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View Comments (63)
@ marhalim
thanks for the link, which i will need to go through tonight.
anyway it is clear that countries from indonesia to australia is looking at bolstering their defence in the next 10 years. We need to do so too, as in the next 10 years is probably the closest we would get to losing parts our sovereignty ever since we got our independence from the british.
To compare, this year our defence budget is rm15.6 billion.
Indonesia for 2021 will be spending usd10.6 billion (rm45.58 billion) for defence.
IMO for us to have adequate operational and developmental budget, in the next 10 years we need to spend at least usd4.5 billion per year up to 2030. With at least usd1 billion per year of that budget set aside for development expenditure. Anything less IMO would see our defensive posture diminish when compared to regional countries.
I am very, very excited for Australia's acquisition of cutting edge technology.
Also curious about the direction Singapore will take. Singapore has so far saved money by acquiring only the best technology that has reached a reasonably mature state. We'll see if regional pressures lead to them changing this policy.
Marhalim, how often do Australian P-8's visit us and how long do they stay?
... "We need to do so too, as in the next 10 years is probably the closest we would get to losing parts our sovereignty ever since we got our independence from the british. IMO for us to have adequate operational and developmental budget, in the next 10 years we need to spend at least usd4.5 billion per year up to 2030. "
I agree with you. We have to overcome not only external challenges but also years of our own neglect. The trouble is, upping our defence spending will require up-ending the entire model of government spending and you will have to get people to accept that.
Our task is not only pointing out where defence spending should grow but also where other areas should be cut. Then there are the matters of corruption and national interest.
Professionals study logistics, it is said.
Reply
RAAF never announced its deployment of P8 or Orions before especially if its done under Ops Gateway it's own operations.
Rm800bil, that's like Rm200bil per year.
What's interesting, they are spending AUS $10bil on stand-off long range offensive strike weapons. A battery installed at their off-shore bases, like in Penang could choke off Selat Melaka to belligerent fleets. Another battery based in SG could overwatch southern SCS, choking marine lanes from Selat Melaka to SCS and vice versa.
Ha ha, I will be helping pay for it. Looks like the tax cuts promised by Morrison during the last election will not be happening 😢.
Lets face it ..post covid 19, we will not increase our defence budget, or rather we dont have the capacity to increase them..if we can retain the same amount for next year like this year's, it will be good enough..
Right now the question is…
How do we prepare for the post-covid world?
The biggest issues for the next 10 years IMO would be
– The loss of malaysian EEZ into the unethical Chinese territorial waters of 9-dash line
– Coping with increased military posture in borneo due to Indonesia having its new capitol in Kalimantan
– Maintaining security in malaysian waters and eez
– Maintaining security in malaysian airspace and avoiding MH370 like scenario to ever happen again
– Rapid deployment of our ground troops and maintaining the ops tempo with secure logistical lines.
IMO we could have a development expenditure (or what the aussies call “capability investment” in their papers) of usd10 billion for 2020-2030, which is just usd1 billion per year. This increase, can be afforded by the government, and although minimal, would be a workable one if it can be agreed to as a long term stable budgetary planning.
From what I suggested previously as 10 years would cover 2 RMK, for each service the development expenditure to 2030 would be
Navy usd4 billion
Air force usd3.2 billion
Army usd2.8 billion
Yes if you can see the amount is tiny when compared to what Indonesia wants to spend just for 1 year, but that is basically what we can afford without sacrificing our health, public and education budget that we enjoy.
With small budget comes big responsibility to get the best equipment for the money. Hard choices need to be made. Mundane equipment that gets the job done is better than expensive high tech but unaffordable to operate it frequently.
What IMO needs to be done from 2020-2030
Navy
– forget about OPVs and pass all kedah class to MMEA by 2030
– get its head down and proceed building the gowinds to 9 ships in total
– with budget freed of building OPVs, try to get 1 more scorpenes by 2030
– enlargement of PASKAL and setting up a littoral strike force ala the sweedish jaegers
RMK12 2021-2025 USD2bil
2x SGPV Gowind USD1000 mil (include additional cost due to delay)
2x MRSS USD300 mil
16x FIC USD50 mil
5x AS332 USD50 mil (used - maritime utility helicopter)
4x Lynx ASW upgrades USD100 mil (2 additional used + 2 conversion from existing)
2x AS355NP USD5 mil (used - utility and PASKAL support)
8x LMS68 USD250 mil
1x Autonomous MCM system USD60 mil
3x Offshore OSV USD40 mil (used - MCM, survey, salvage, PASKAL support, as auxillary ship)
2x Support tanker USD60 mil (Brand new Indonesia 150m tanker BM5 BM6 replacement, as auxillary ship)
RMK13 2026-2030 USD2 bil
3x SGPV Gowind USD1200 mil Gowind no.7, 8 & 9
1x Scorpene USD500 mil Scorpene no.3
3x Autonomous MCM system USD180 mil
16x FIC USD50 mil
2x Floating base USD30 mil (used - tanker ship conversion semisubmersible, as auxillary ship)
1x Heavilift RORO USD10 mil (used - additional transport - as auxillary ship)
Air Force
– conversion of 6 CN-235-220 into capable MPAs. Yes some is paid for by usa, but we need to put money into it too to put more capable systems into it, such as VIDAR, MAD XR, OSPREY AESA Radar and such.
– LCA/LIFT. We need to decide by 2021 the latest actually, to have first of them by 2025. We need a capable, supersonic fighter in numbers with frugal operating costs to enable us to do our daily taskings much more successfully.
– AWACS and EW/EA.
RMK12 2021-2025 USD1.56bil
40 TA/FA-50M 1350mil 16 TA-50, 24 FA-50. Hawk/MB-339CM replacement 2 operational Sqn, 1 LIFT Sqn, 1 Adversary/Display Sqn
6 CN-235-220 MPA conv 40mil plus trade in 3 B200T MPA, 4 with USA MSI grant.
4 Su-30MKI (used india) trade-in 12 MiG-29N, plus overhaul IAF C-130J in Airod
12 Bayraktar TB2 MALE UAV 70mil 3 systems with 4 uav per system
6 EC-225LP(used) 50mil Free transfer of 5 from Boustead MHS (as a consession to approving additional RM1.4billion budget for the Gowinds) plus 1 bought. Upgrade all to mil spec radios.
1 GroundMaster GM403 radar 30mil
1-2 TPS-77 MRR radar Free transfer USA
11 PC-7 MkII (used s africa) 20mil Include upgrades and SCAR Pods for observation use in ESSCOM. Future fleet to consist of 32x PC-7 MkII.
-3 C-130H-30 -75mil Sell 3 C-130H-30 to fund C-130 fleet upgrade + buy 1 additional short fuselage C-130H for SF support. Future fleet to consist of 6x C-130H-30, 4x KC-130H, 1x C-130H-MP, 1x C-130H SF support.
RMK13 2026-2030 USD1.56bil
12 FA-50M 450mil
3 G6000 Erieye ER AEW&C 600mil
1 G6000 HAVASOJ EW 120mil
2 G6000 (used) 40mil VIP/training to replace Global Express
2 A400M 300mil partly used Spain/UK/Germany allocation
2 GroundMaster GM403 radar 50mil
Army
– Gempita batch 2. I forsee a 2nd batch of just 170 units mostly of the cheaper IFV variant to enable us to create a wholly gempita brigade. This will have a better operational capability than with the current mix of wheeled and tracked vehicles in 1 brigade. This can be had for around usd500 million.
– 6×6 for cavalry? the same tasks can be done by cheaper J-LTVs. We can get 350 J-LTV for around usd150 million.
– recapitalization of artillery pieces. more LG-1, new 155mm towed and SPH.
– recapitalization of jernas
– recapitalisation of ATGM and heat seeking MANPADS
– Nuri replacement
RMK12 2021-2025 USD1.4bil
Cyber warfare 0.1
4 Vera-NG ESM 0.1
165 AV8 Gempita batch2 0.5
125 J-LTV 0.05
45 LG-1 105mm 0.06
70 PT-91M batch2 0.28 refurbished PT-91 include upgrade batch1
26 S-70A-9 used 0.06 ex Australian Army + swap with MD530G
10 A109E Power 0.02 used commercial. utility, training, medevac, VIP (taking over tudm vip helicopter taskings)
220 Polaris DAGOR A1 0.04 10PARA + GGK
20 SH-15 155mm SPH 0.05
260 KIA KLTV 0.04
20K SOLDIER SYSTEMS 0.1
RMK13 2026-2030 USD1.4bil
Cyber warfare 0.1
Electronic warfare 0.05
400 Bushmaster HMPV 0.25
250 J-LTV 0.1
36 CAMM 0.3 (replacement for Jernas)
45 LG-1 105mm 0.06
48 AH4/AHS4 155mm 0.1
6 Fulmar X UAV 0.008 (ISTAR for RAD)
6 PAC 750XL 0.015 ISTAR and SF support
4 PC-12NG used 0.015 utility, medevac, SF support
Arthur upgrade + add 0.1 (arthur upgrade + additional 6 used units)
60 LIG Nex1 Chiron MANPAD 0.05 (replacement for IGLA)
72 LIG Nex1 Raybolt ATGM 0.05 (replacement for ERYX, Metis-M)
260 KIA KLTV 0.04
20K SOLDIER SYSTEMS 0.1
I like ur suggestion but i kinda sceptical cuz we never dish that kind of money for defence sector..i like to propose a security boost every 5 years for some 10 billion myr outside that year defence and home ministry budget
AM - “ill require up-ending the entire model of government spending and you will have to get people to accept that””
Will require more than that.
Will require deep fundamental changes in our whole policy and outlook; including undoing years of flawed and disastrous decisions; including the role the local industry plays. The problem is that a lot of the hard decisions needed are in turn linked to political factors. Also imperative we learn from our mistakes; rather than them again and again.
Unless that happens it will matter not how much we allocate for defence and what planning we do. What cash there is will be squandered; the MAF will continue to be in a neither here nor there position and taxpayer will continue to be screwed.
I won’t go into hypothetical ORBATs or TOEs. For me a good start would be maintaining the course with stuff already approved by the previous government such as MPAs and UASs. Even that is in ridiculously small numbers.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-02/australias-new-defence-strategy-strategic-shift-foreign-policy/12412650
Excerpt of the article :
Given all this uncertainty, Australia is embracing a doctrine of deterrence.
There are limits to this strategy. Australia's military is small, and does not have any nuclear weapons.
The defence strategy puts it baldly: "Only the nuclear and conventional capabilities of the United States can offer effective deterrence against the possibility of nuclear threats against Australia."
But the shifts in power and unpredictability of the Trump administration have convinced the Federal Government that Australia must be able to do more by itself.
"It is the Government's intent that Australia take greater responsibility for our own security," is how the strategy puts it.
"It is therefore essential that the ADF grow its self-reliant ability to deliver deterrent effects."
________________________
Why IMO we need to excel in 2 things. 1 is to do our day to day peacetime security missions effectively. 2 is to have a deterrence effect to make any attempt to attack malaysia or its interests a costly one.
Someone said here that deterrence is only possible with nuclear weapons and impossible with conventional ones. But as what australia is planning to do, we need to think of deterrence factors even without nuclear weapons.
Additional deterrence could be in the form of more attack submarines, multiple anti-ship attack and targetting options, area denial by upgrading our naval mine stockpile and delivery methods, saturation attacks with MLRS, long range precision land attack missiles, electronic attack. Some items that could improve our deterrence posture.
- additional scorpene submarine
- Supersonic Brahmos NG for SU-30MKM (3 NG can be carried by MKM compared to needing to heavily modify airframe for just one for the original Brahmos)
- air and submarine launched NSM.
- Roketsan SOM cruise missile
- Quickstrike fuses or equivalent for Mk80 series bombs to convert them into naval mines.
- Aselsan HAVASOJ Electronic Attack aircraft.
@ firdaus
usd4.5 billion is around RM19.35 billion, just additional RM3.75 billion compared to this years RM15.6 billion budget. Indonesia for example is going to increase its defence budget by about usd1.9 billion in 2021 compared to this year.
@...
Nice on paper, but can we afford such a boost? USD$ 1Bil is Rm4Bil a year, that an increase of 25% on top of the Rm16Bil we had earlier budgeted. Where we're going to cut to get that money? Looking at post-Covid MY, we'd be lucky if we could still get that much to use. Even when good times return, we'd be lucky to spend that much without any sort of "pemangkin ekonomi" ToT trade-off.