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SHAH ALAM: Defence Minister DS Khaled Nordin in late January announced that RMAF Sukhoi Su-30MKM Flanker fleet will be in service for another ten years or 2035. He made the statement after visiting Gong Kedak airbase where No 12 Skuadron operates the Flankers.
Although he did not say anything on the No 18 Skuadron which operates the F/A-18 Hornets, we know from previous reports and RMAF’s own CAP 55 plan, the recapitalization of the MRCA fleet will only take place between 2030 and 2035. The exact timing remained hazy as always it is up to the government of the day to pony up the funds needed for the procurement. I was told that the MRCA requirements were put in the RMK11 and RMK12 wish list as well though it was never funded.
Now, there is talk that the funding for the MRCA Fifth Generation (MRCA 5G) will be fleshed out in the RMK13 – 2026 to 2030 – and if the contract was signed during the period, deliveries could start by RMK14. Just in time for the retirements of the Flanker and Hornets as planned. Do note that a general election must be held by the latest in early 2028 though some are saying it will be held late this year. Any political change will reset the timing of any programme especially one as large as a fighter procurement. The RMK13 funding is expected to be tabled in Parliament either in September or October.
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The Requirements?
Numbers for the MRCA 5G remained hazy as RMAF Cap 55 plan envisaged only a two-fighter fleet. The current plan plan is for a 36-strong FLIT/LCA fleet and 18 MRCA. Numbers could change though.
As for the technical requirements, I was told that the MRCA being sought must be a fifth-generation platform, hence the title of the post MRCA 5G. The other requirements – I am assuming based on the previous MRCA requirements – will be twin engines – and that it is an in-service platform and not a prototype. That said this not a prototype thing while a requirement has never been set in stone.
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The chosen MRCA 5G will be the one that meets the main requirements but also the minor details of course. We know from the previous MRCA project the main contenders were twin engine fighters – the Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon and Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet.
The only single engine aircraft offered was the Saab Gripen and despite a strong campaign, it was never in the mix. Russia offered the Mikoyan MiG-35, a modernised version of the Fulcrum with twin-engines and an AESA radar. It was dropped – after the first round of in-country technical briefing – as it was a prototype though Mikoyan insisted it was not.
The Current Contenders.
The three in service stealth fighters – namely the Lockheed Martin F-35; Shenyang J-35 and the Sukhoi SU-57 – will be in the starting line-up. In fact, if without the current economic sanctions against Russia, the Felon might already be half-way there already. I will not bore you with their technical details as one could easily find them on the Internet. It is interesting to note that both the Felon and Lightning II have been in combat in recent months. The F-35 has been exported mostly to NATO countries though neighbouring Singapore is also getting them. The Felon only known export customer is Algeria which will take delivery of the first six aircraft next year. The Chinese J-35 is the dark horse. That said it is unclear whether China will allow it to be exported though.
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Others
Korean Aerospace Industries KF-21 Boramae is expected to be operational by next year. The development phase is set to conclude by June 2026, with the first batch of aircraft being deployed to the South Korean Air Force that year. For the South Korean perspective, the MRCA 5G should start in 2027 when their aircraft is no longer a prototype and ready for deliveries.
As for the Turkish Aerospace Industries fifth generation fighter – KAAN or TFX – the first flight of the first prototype only on February 21 2024. The prototype is only expected to be delivered to the Turkish Air Force in 2028 for operational testing. It is likely the first TFX to be declared in operational service in 2030 at the earliest. Based on the timeline, our constant dithering in funding may well give Turkiye the chance to enter the competition. If the MRCA 5G competition goes beyond 2030, of course.
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Conclusion
Some people might read this story and retort aish, this is just to hype up Lima 25 and the next edition lah. They could be right, of course. That said I was told that several companies are preparing to bring their MRCA 5G to Malaysia this May for LIMA 25. Nothing has been confirmed yet but as May gets nearer one will find out if this is a a hype or not. The talk about the MRCA 5G is the reason you read a story or two dismissing the plan buy the Kuwaiti Hornets. These stories said why waste money on the Kuwaiti Hornets when you plan to fly them for another ten years.
Perhaps, like India, the current US administration will offer us the F-35s instead of the Kuwaiti Hornets. (see the Tweet above)
— Malaysian Defence
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View Comments (53)
My comment on this matter
1. It is probably to hype up LIMA 2025. For RMK13 2026-2030, TUDM current plans will eat up most of the available budget anyway (which is around USD1.6 bil if we refer to the previous RMKs). IMO things TUDM need/want to fund in RMK13 2026-2030 :
- 18x FA-50 batch 2 (USD1 bil)
- 4x ATR-72MPA batch 2 (USD0.35 bil)
- MERAD
- additional ground-based radar replacements
2. Original CAP55 plans envisions the TUDM having :
- 2x 5G MRCA Squadrons
- 2x LCA Squadrons
- 1x FLIT/LIFT Squadron
So the 5G MRCA requirement is probably at least 24 units (not 18) for 2 Squadrons.
https://www.malaysiandefence.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Cap55F.jpg
3. Hornets transfer IMO would be a done deal even if we are going to use them for just 10 years. The cost of transfer would be very minimal, if not almost for free. Any 5G MRCA induction would be 2031 at the earliest, and won't be fully operational with 2 squadrons worth until past 2035. So those additional Hornets would be very valuable asset to TUDM.
4. Personally i would prefer the KF-21, as the current world situation means that we and south korea are now in the same boat (cannot trust USA anymore to come to our rescue). There are also talks recently of Saudi Arabia going for the KF-21. So in all i would put the KF-21 as our best bet for our 5G MRCA requirement.
5. IMO the best thing we can do within RMK13 2026-2030 is to sign the contract for FA-50 Batch 2 together with the MOU for 24 KF-21 to be delivered in RMK14 2031-2035 (12 units) and RMK15 2036-2040 (12 units).
lockheed has been jangling the toys in front of tudm for a while so i am not terkejut if its shortlisted. f-35 involved in exes is not coincidence, same tactic boeing did to sell the f18.
I'm a long time reader of this website and really enjoyed the content but it's my first time posting a comment because this one is an interesting topic.
I personally believe that we will end up keeping our 4.5++ gen fighters for quite longer than expected especially with current uncertainty in the world and especially SCS region because even one extra operational bird in the sky is a huge plus in hard times.
Just like the US that tho they have F22s and F35s they still have their 4th gen+ plus fighters like F18s and especially F16s around due to their versatility and the fact is any modern 4.5++ gen fighter is as capable as a 5th gen fighter but with much lower per-hour cost of operation minus the stealth capabilities of course.
I believe if we officially declare 2 squadron of 5th gen fighters operational somewhere in 2035, we will retire the hawks instead and we will keep our 4th gen fighters for a much longer time and might put some of them in "reserve" mode to cut some cost but won't be retied especially if the geopolitical situation continues this current trajectory which, unfortunately it seems to be that way.
Ps: I have a strange feeling that with some difficulties that we faced maintaining our Russian fleet especially with the MIGs, I don't think our next strategic 5th gen fighter purchase is gonna be Russian to avoid any potential supply chain disruption.
The practical question, would ww be willing to spend USD200 mil per aircraft? Base on tbe current govt trend of doing things, it neans more subsidy cuts, increasw payment for public services and reduced public services? We Malaysian would have to accept life style changes if we pursue this.But at the same time we still need an airforce with sufficient numbers and deterrent capabilities to protect our ever contested sovereignty, and not just from China.We may have to adopt a hi-lo mix strategy to stretch our minimal budget and may have to consider cheaper alteenatives nation for war equipment supply.
One have to think whether the Mindef people allowed the leasing deal to go through to save their more important projects...
@Hulubalang
"Personally i would prefer the KF-21"
Me too as it seems the most practical choice (lower purchasing and operating costs than Flanker or similar size jets, in time and US might not give us F35 like with Thailand).
@Cyber
"I don’t think our next strategic 5th gen fighter purchase is gonna be Russian"
Yup but this is Malaysia the boleh land, anything can happen...
@Hulubalang
"Saudi Arabia going for the KF-21"
There is a lot of news about Saudi Arabia, some say they want Tempest GCAP 6th gen, some say they also want KAAN. Though i think they just want to get everything that they can get their hands on
RMAF can go for KF-21 but wait until its fully 5gen standard.
The likelihood of signing at the beginning of rmk13 is extremely unlikely. We here like to hype up things for years before buying anything. If we even buy anything at all.
Most likely the signing would be held at the end of Rmk13, with delivery at the beginning of rmk15. Which mean the gomen doesn't really need to pay anything for the next 2 rmk other than just promises. If the delivery schedule is spread over 10 years then we would end up using the Kuwaiti hornet for 20 years up until 2045.
So In general nothing really unusual about the timelines.
@ kamal a
" would ww be willing to spend USD200 mil per aircraft? "
KF-21 flyaway cost is put at around US80mil (as offered to Thailand). Even at those prices, we probably need like 10 years of TUDM CAPEX budget to buy 24 units.
" We may have to adopt a hi-lo mix strategy "
We already adopting it.
Hi = 5G MRCA
Lo = FA-50
Lets see if we can actually afford to buy the F-35
Normal CAPEX allocation for TUDM in each of the 5 year rancangan malaysia = around USD1.6 billion.
Example cost of F-35, this is for 32x F-35A for Romania
https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/romania-f-35-aircraft
It cost USD7.2 billion.
With TUDM current CAPEX allocation, we will need nearly 25 years worth of total TUDM CAPEX to afford to buy the same number of F-35 as Romania. So which budget to cut if we really want this? Education? Medical? Subsidies?
I would say "dengar boleh percaya jangan"
1. Politicians are not good at keeping their plan. Policy is changed depend on who is sitting on driver seat.
2. The gov is struggling to meet 36 units of FA-50. No fund will available in 2030.
3. RMAF is not ready to operate 5th gen fighters. Operating 5th gen is about networked environment not platform.
4. 5th gen fighter is costly in operating and maintaining which need significant increment in annual military budget.
5. Other branches and MMEA are under equipt that need attention.
6. Many homework should be done first such as LCS, OPV, SPH, used hornet etc.
In short, it is all about LIMA. This is just old gimmick because LIMA has less attractive and the EO has run of option to make LIMA great again.
PS...
The onky accepted naration is RMAF will gradually run out of fighter in 2035. Procurement new fighter is needed in 5 years before. 2030 is a big question if the money is available and we can get any of existing 5th gen today due to common operatability or political reason.
I must say 4.5th fighter is more logic in 2030 and easier to be planned.