SHAH ALAM: General elections and the 2023 National Security Budget. Malaysia’s ninth prime minister, DS Ismail Sabri announced the dissolution of Parliament on October 10, paving the way for the 15th general elections. The dissolution came just three days after the 2023 national budget was proposed in Parliament.
With the announcement, the 2023 proposed national budget remained in limbo until the next government comes into power and proposed it in a parliamentary session. Does this mean what was announced last Friday – including the national security budget – will not be approved? Yes, and it is up to the next government to come with the proposal.
If its BN dominated government and led by Ismail and the same finance minister, it is likely the proposals tabled on Friday could be re-proposed. If it is a new government with BN majority though with a different PM, it may still table the same budget proposal with some changes especially the ones specifically relating to the ninth PM (Keluarga Malaysia things for an example). A government led by the opposition will produce a totally new budget proposal.
What about the national security budget then? For the first scenario, I am assuming there will be no changes. For the second scenario I foresee some changes especially in projects which contracts have not been signed yet. Things only with LOI might see changes to the local companies. Not for the Anka though as I see it to be safe whomever becomes the Prime Minister even if it was from the opposition.
If the opposition takes over the government, deals in the pipeline via direct negotiations like the 4X4 vehicles will be cancelled. The LCS project may well be scrapped as the opposition designated PM, DS Anwar Ibrahim is already on record as saying just that.
That said, I am aware many politicians do take what they said very lightly so it will not be surprising if he will not make good on his claim.
As for whom to be appointed to Jalan Padang Tembak, I will say it is too early to make predictions now. Let us wait for the dust to settles first.
— Malaysian Defence
Ideal situation
– 854 million ringgit Yavuz deal scrapped. Look at getting shore based anti-ship missile battery instead.
– LCS deal scrapped. BNS+THHE consolidated with MMHE under Petronas. LMS Batch 2 budget use to replace LCS, buy proven platform from proven shipyard with proven delivery times. Get at least 3 completed by 2025/26, fastest built by Korean shipyard, proven model HDF-2600. MMHE+BNS+THHE in meantime to build MRSS, MMEA OPV batch 2 for RMK12.
– ATR 72 MPA contract scrapped. Save money by converting CN-235 instead. Get Proper ASW capable MPA/UAS in 10 years time (RMK14).
– 4×4 scrapped. Army wants smaller recce armored vehicles anyway.
– Accelerate the approval of LCA/FLIT for FA-50. Just agree to the price but instead of asking for lower price, ask for free transfer of other defence materials. Some Korean defence materials that we can ask for a) additional KIFV, b) Metis-M ATGM reloads, c) used UH-60 Blackhawks. If it is up to me, I would ask for a free blackhawk for each FA-50 that we buy, instantly giving PUTD the Nuri replacement it badly needed.
– Major things from Turkey. No to yavuz and anka. Yes to Adnan upgrade, Gempita IFV batch 2, TB2, SOM missile for Hornet and MKM, Cakir missile for distributed anti ship missile system, standoff high power EW jammer systems.
Any faction that could promise us
– minimum 1.2% GDP defence budget for the next 5 years
– Scrap LCS and give RMN at least 3 of the 6 Frigate needed before 2025
– no hanky panky deals such as the Yavuz SPH
surely will have my vote!
Nah, new government will cancel everything and reinvent the wheel. RMAF will end up with only 12 JF 17 for LCA. ATR and Anka will be cancelled. LCS will just rust away and the comedy show called the Malaysian government will just continue on, oblivious to what’s happening around them.
All wishful thinking, PH led government will even worse than the current government, they simply dont feel the need for defense spending and may even cut the defense expenditure but downsizing the armed forces.
Anka will survive no matter what happens
After what transpired since 2018, I’d advice to take whatever Pakatan and their dear leader says with heaps of seasalt. Recall that PH Govt too had decided to continue on with LCS project rather than scrap it (unless AI say it was a Madey PH Govt and not a AI PH Govt so whatever they said and policies made then did not count, lol). No matter what I doubt LCS will be gone, as its too big to fail. All it might happen (if PH do come back) would be shifting the work to their own cronies. Right pocket to Left pocket job.
The Turkish buys too would survive regardless, the Anka, Yavuz, Ejder Yalcin, Hurjet, Adnan upgrades, just another matter of switching Left or Right pocket cronies.
Certain Western buys might be cancelled or diverted, ostensibly for the sake of “saving money”, whatever that means. Most likely, as with the previous PH Govt, all buys will be on paper but no commitment. Oh they might just come out with a new DWP to salve the burning questions, some minister might say the right words just to get the forum community excited, but that’s all they will likely to do for defence matters.
Kenapa yang komen kata ph tak berminat dengan defence walaupun tempoh pemerintahan singkat dapat jugak tldm helikopter baru startup baru berkembang dengan dasar tender terbuka takdela dapat kompeni yang sama barang buruk nak mampus pun jual dkt atm mengenai dwp at least they try to be transparent is a first time sure mesti ada blunder punya
@Dets
Results speak for itself. When PH froze LCS payments, did they consider the implications? Now thanks to the delays, whatever budget has to make additional RM 1Billion just for that work stoppage. When PH scrapped M109 buys, did they have an alternative ready? Nope. We’re still talking about wheeled SPH today and that’s now morphed from Caesar to Yavuz. TLDM MUH buy was originally budgeted for their ASW choppers so whoopdeedoo should we applaud PH when TLDM make use of unutilised money that was budgeted under BN beforehand?
I agree one change they did make a positive impact is open tender process but have they actually make use of it to buy something under their own budget? And guess what, not everyone here agrees that open tender is the right way. So whoopdeedoo as well.
Whether it’s BN or Pakatan the fact remains that politicians are largely clueless, indifferent and complacent about defence – period/full stop. It doesn’t help that the voter base whom the politicians rely on to stay are also largely clueless, indifferent and complacent.
Everyone wants the procurement to get the best equipment for the military at the most cost effective way/best bang for the buck possible.
The best way is through open tender, with clear tender specifications of what must this equipment able to achieve.
Second is through transparent government to government deals such as DSCA
Next is to have “Indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity” contract clause for items that we need to buy repeatedly. So no need to do new tender to buy same items that is already in our inventory.
Anything that gives what our military needs, with no gold plating or absurd mark ups.
m – ”with no gold plating”
Very little of what we have is ”gold plated”. Equipped to a high spec because we lack numbers and we want to make the most of what we have and because in this day and age various sub components are needed which weren’t in the past but not ”gold plated” per see; in that stuff is fitted with stuff superfluous to our needs.
”that’s now morphed from Caesar to Yavuz. ”
It hasn’t ”morphed” into anything. A local company teamed up with a OEM to offer Yavuz just like a local company teamed up with a OEM to offer Eva. Also, Caesar may have been the one we heard the most about [largely because at one point it was the only one offered and under serious consideration] but it wasn’t like it was a done deal or that we weren’t looking at anything else.
Caesar was almost a certainty, surely TDM would not have tested it as extensively compared to other systems if they were not all that interested plus Nexter were the most actively engaging them. It was amongst the top of their list, if not the very top, and the fact that they were willing to spurn a confirmed buy of M109s and risk waiting god knows how long, speaks volume of their insistent of that particular system. If it weren’t a done deal, it was certainly one that TDM wanted done for a long time.
Still. Will they willing to accept Yavuz? Sure they will. But will they be happy about it? Erm… only time will tell.