SHAH ALAM: FLIT/LCA Decision in the first quarter of 2022? Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) is expecting Malaysia and Senegal to make decisions on their next military jet purchases in Quarter One next year, an analysis from Shinhan Investment Corporation said.
The report puts Malaysia’s contract to be worth US$197 million (RM828 million) and Senegal order could be worth $147 million. The South Korean investment company has factored in sales success into its 2023 earnings forecasts of KAI. Both orders are for the FA-50, says the Alert 5 website.
I have not read the Shinhan report so I cannot say whether their information is valid or not. But the conversations I had in the last two weeks or so, I believed that the report is overly optimistic on the timeline. Yes, the people I spoke with are convinced that the KAI TA/FA-50 is the hot-on favourite and the most likely get the nod for FLIT/LCA programme, a firm decision within the next three months are un-realistic to say the least.
Why I am saying this? For example, no firm decision on the MPA/UAS tender have been made I have been told. I have been told further things, of course, but since this is an open forum it is likely I will be told off by someone else, who read something on another platform which copy pasted what I wrote here. I will make an update on this soon.
Of course, I will be glad if they do come to a decision by first quarter of 2022 (on all things) as it would help the Armed Forces greatly. But as thing stands, the decision making process is painfully slow as shown by the other tenders and decisions that have yet to be made.
It is interesting to note that a number of people kept missing the FLIT equation of the FLIT/LCA tender. This is on purpose, I believe, so they can claimed that their jet is better. It is interesting to note as well that some parties are trying the muddy the waters to ensure that the decision for the tender as an overt political one. With you know who at the helm, its certainly a high probability.
HT to Alert 5
— Malaysian Defence
At this point, I’ll be surprised even any new procurement gets funded at all.
to be frank, i am glad that the MPA/UAS has not been decided.
As for the LCA/FLIT, the planned decision gate is april 2022. Whether it will be decided as per planned, is of course a different matter. It could go the way of the MPA/UAS decisions of no decisions bwing made. But if that is the case, there is a record breaking of sorts of no good news for malaysian military procurements.
Only in Malaysia where a crucial tender requires years for the decision making process to be completed. I have a feeling that in reality, the decision can be made within 2-3 months of the tender being closed. Like the tender for the UAS, it’s not that sophisticated of a system when compared to others and I believe the winners are clear, it would be either of the Turkish drones Anka or TB2. American drones are too expensive for Malaysia, European drones are a tiny less expensive then American and haven’t prove their worth plus not popular, goverment may consider Chinese drones since its so cheap but hope not, its so unreliable with no quality. I also believe for the MPA tender, a winner must have been chosen already, just not revealed.
The only logical conclusion as to why MPA, UAS and other procurement have not yet began is budget constraints. No government or country takes as long as Malaysia to pick a winner in an open military tender. If they do, its due to budget like us. If the goverment really need such a long time to evaluate the tender instead of no money then government is highly slow and inefficient.
With the flood situation and government handing out free money like its candy, we will know for certain the winner for LCA by 2023 and then payment begins at 2024 and receive the first jets by 2025.
“With you know who at the helm, its certainly a high probability.”
Hopefully he will not choose the TAI Hurjet. The last thing we ever need is ‘local assembly’ as been proven by LCS
American drones were not offered for the UAS tender as I mentioned before
They only need to pay a small amount when the contract is signed so that is the reason it could be done
@Luqman
I really hope ‘that particular personality’ will not be muddle-headed and choose the L-15B or the Turkiye paper plane.
“the report is overly optimistic”
In business world, that’s what year end financial reports are for. Otherwise there will be run on the company’s stocks. USD $197mil for 18 planes? Thats USD $11mil per plane. Realistic kah, since Thai order in Aug 2021 is $39mil each. IMHO take such reports with massive jars of salt. These are for KAI investors’ consumption, not us.
Muhammad – ”Only in Malaysia where a crucial tender requires years for the decision making process to be completed.”
Not only in Malaysia but other places as well. A lot of things to factor in. Even in the 1990’s when times we’re good; picking a candidate was a long and cumbersome process.
Muhammad – ”I also believe for the MPA tender, a winner must have been chosen already”
No it hasn’t ….. The RMAF has made its choice but the government has not agreed.
Muhammad – ”is highly slow and inefficient.”
It’s a giant bureaucracy what do you expect? You think other bureaucracies worldwide are much better? Not only the RMAF but MOF, EPU in the PM Department and other bodies are involved. Even after a decision has been made; negotiations have to be started and agreed upon. Does not happen overnight; like the impression you have.
Muhammad – ”” haven’t prove their worth”
Not true really…. European UASs have been deployed operationally in a few places; just not as widespread and the Europeans have not matured much as other with regards to MALEs and HALEs.
Muhamma”No government or country takes as long as Malaysia to pick a winner in an open military tender.
Actually they do and it’s because of a whole lost of factors; related directly and otherwise …
”Anka or TB2”
Unless I’m mistaken the TB2 has not been offered. In reality there are a whole host of factors to be considered : unit price, per hour of flight costs, costs of spares, product support, etc, etc……
Luqman – ”The last thing we ever need is ‘local assembly’ as been proven by LCS”
The LCS was ”local construction” which differs somewhat from ”local assembly”.
”The last thing we ever need” is a platform which has just entered development and us being the lead foreign operator.
“missing the FLIT equation”
It really depends which role TUDM would prioritise the LCA/FLIT. If main purpose is FLIT, M349 is the better platform with more maturity in the training role and it was designed onset to excel as one. If LCA is the priority, then FA50 in view that it is more widely adopted as a light fighter.
If the OEMs are pushing hard on LCA equation, perhaps TUDM wants an LCA with FLIT functions rather than FLIT with added LCA capability?
”perhaps TUDM wants an LCA with FLIT functions rather than FLIT with added LCA capability?”
Like you said; depends on what is the RMAF’s priority. We simply don’t know as almost nothing with regards to the specs issued in the tender have leaked out. All we know is that the platform must have a radar and have a air to air, air to ground and anti maritime capability. Have we actually specified we want a supersonic platform? Have we specified that whatever we order must already have several users?
Getting a common platform solves a lot of issues but it also creates other issues; thus the RMAF by this juncture will already have decided on the level of compromises it is willing to make. Whether the government agree is another question.
@Azlan
“The RMAF has made its choice but the government has not agreed.”
May I know on what basis made you said this? Also what is the RMAF choice?
Luqman – ”May I know on what basis made you said this”
You may and I will oblige. From industry people and former/ RMAF people who tell me that at a political level there is no firm choice/favourite; yet….
Luqman – ” Also what is the RMAF choice?”
As Marhalim has indicated and as many expected.
@joe
Hello, I missed something in this text. $197 million is an estimate of orders placed in the first year after the first order. Of course, no one thinks that 18 FA-50s can be bought for $197 million.