* Edited to add the view of Tim Huxley.
PETALING JAYA: Political scientist Farish A.Noor has opened a can of worms today by claiming that Indonesia had tipped the balance of the military equation by “operationalising” the Yakhont supersonic missile recently.
He claimed the ship-based Yakhont gave Indonesia an offensive capability unlike Vietnam who also have a similar missile but is land-based and therefore, can be considered as a defensive weapon.
He cited concerns of unnamed security analysts that the new arm purchases may sparked off an arms race. When a write of Farish Noor standing gave credence to these issues what are we, layman, going to say about it?
For the last few years, every body and sundry had been claiming that the region was in the midst of an arms race every time, apart from Singapore, buys anything.
Yes, Farish clarified that Indonesia and other regional countries needed transport ships, patrols boats and observation planes and other stuff but his clarion cry about an arms race will be vindicated those who had said it in the past.
I am guessing that more people will call their boats as Patrol Vessels and their planes as interceptors to avoid the tag of proponents of an arms race. Oh, well.
From NST. Read It Here.
“It is in this light that we need to consider Indonesia’s latest testing of its Yakhont anti-ship missile, which was launched in the Indian Ocean recently. The successful test-firing of the Russian-made missile marks a significant development in the military potential of Indonesia.
The anti-ship missile has a range of around 300km and flies at Mach 2.5, more than twice the speed of sound.
Vietnam, likewise, has the same missile capabilities, but its anti-ship missiles are based in land installations, rendering them useful for only defensive operations.
Over the past few years, other countries in Asean have beefed up their anti-ship missile capabilities: Malaysia has introduced underwater-launched anti-ship missiles in the Scorpene submarines.
The concern of some security analysts, however, is that these new arms purchases may inadvertently contribute to an arms race of sorts in Southeast Asia, and thereby decrease, rather than increase, Asean’s role as a peacekeeping arrangement between its member states.”
I am also adding what Tim Huxley is saying about a similar issue. From Defence News.
“Whether or not there is an arms race in Asia is a favorite essay topic for university courses in international relations and security studies. But this is a curiously semantic debate. It is evident that contemporary military developments in Asia closely resemble neither the pre-1914 Anglo-German naval arms race nor the U.S.-Soviet missile race of the 1960s.
However, it also is clear there is a real danger of multiple and wastefully expensive subregional military competitions destabilizing Asia’s security, and that there are no effective regional security institutions to mitigate this threat.”
So do brace for the word ‘arms race” whenever we buy anything especially we are certainly not buying transport ships, patrol boats and observation planes in the near future, although we needed those things more operationally. These words from Farish will be on every one lips in the near future.
— Malaysian Defence
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View Comments (37)
Yes.Putting the missile on its ships means that the missile can now threaten many cities within the Asean region and get absolute control on the Straits of Melaka. With a 300km range, it need not even be near to a target and imagine hitting say Singapore from far out at sea or hitting KL while the ship is at the other side of Sumatra?.Now we must get the air launched version for our SU's or buy Indian-the Brahmos are the equivalent of the Yakhont.
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Now thats what I call an arms race...
Bro YM Lee,
yes there is a concern but try to see this from their point of view. With almost all but a fingerful of ships are about half a century old, with an archipelago that is rich with natural resources, with very limited defense budget, involved in territory disputes with almost every body and the bitter lesson of losing sipadan to malaysia, they need bang for buck type of weapon. Something that create fear while at the same time would not cost an arm or a leg. If i am not mistaken, they have less than half a dozen of this missiles and only one ship has been wired for them.
So i say keep an eye on them but no to knee jerk reaction.
on the other hand, if our wet dream list of 6 SGPV with MM40 Block 3 and ESSM plus another 18 MRCA ontop of the 18 su and 8 Hornet D, would not that create same effect on the Indonesians?
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If only we get the full complement of the SGPV, 21 and four squadrons of MRCA plus the AEW, plus that and that...
Ym Lee,
Lets not get carried away. The Yakhont can only be used against ship targets... It is not a land attack missile like the Tomahawk or Brahmos. Furthermore, in a real world situation, picking up a long range target on radar and identifying it as such, are 2 very, very, different things. there is also the tricky part of hitting what you aimed at....
What Farish A. Noor, all due respect to him, did not mention is that to take full advantage of its long range, the TNI-AL will need more than just a helicopter and a data link. Unless you have sufficient sensor platforms and data-sharing capacity to make long range, cued shots, which the TNI-AL doesn't but the Soviet navy did and to a lesser extent the Russian navy still has, a long range missile like the Yakhont is not really that useful.
The reason the Soviet designers made mega huge missiles like the Yakhont, Sunburn and Shipwreck was to compensate for the lack of accuracy due to their guidance systems. Anyway, whats all the fuss about???? The KH-31Ps, a training version was shown at the Subang open day event, carried by the MKMs have a similar range and speed. Supersonic anti-ship missiles have been around since the 1980's....
Absolutely correct analysis, Azlan.
As for the 'arms race, on need look not further than SIPRI's military expenditures database. Currently, Singapore spends approximately 4.3% GDP on defence, or $7,651,000 USD. Malaysia, 2% or $3,259,000 USD. Indonesia, 0.9% or $6,009,000 USD. (Keep in mind that these figures probably do not reflect total defence related expenditures.) While these are not tiny sums, an 'arms race' they are not. SE Asia's neighbor to the South, Australia, spends 1.9% GDP or $19,799,000 USD on defence. I don't have to quote how much the neighbors to the North and West spend on defence to make my point.
P.S. What's all the fuss about a handful of missiles, that have no land attack capability, fitted to 40 year old ships? The whole of SEA is within range of hundreds of Chinese ballistic missiles.... armed with both conventional and nuclear warheads. Northern Peninsular Malaysia is within reach of IAF MKIs based at the Nicobar/Andaman islands and Chinese fighters based at Hainan island, so what's the fuss??
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No idea that why I asked...
YM Lee
Why the knee-jerk reaction. It is OK for them to buy something "different". This arms race better have a clear winner because at the end every one will be the loser - less money for hospitals, schools and text books.
Agreed. Even with a 300km range missile, the TNI-AL lack the air assets that is capable to guide the missile adequately. Even the Yankhont test involved static platform target. Their ability to fielded enough of this missile effectively is also a question mark. Even their Sukhoi squadron are lacking enough missiles and trained pilots.
However saying it is not capable to hit a land target is not 100% true either. Latest version of ASMs like Otomat, Harpoon and Exocet is capable to hit a static land targets provided that the user know the target coordinates. However it wasn't really accurate unless the ASMs have a terminal phase guidance of GPS or camera...
Marhalim, you really consider Farish a credible writer on defence and security issues? Interesting that he talks about Indonesia/Malaysia upping ante and leading to ASEAN arms race, but no mention of Singapore's role in such an arms race, not allowed to comment on country which he's based in?
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Actually no, but as I mentioned he is so renowned internationally his words carries a lot of weight.
Local academics who no doubt have a very in depth knowledge of international relations/politics and spending trends, unfortunatly have a very superficial knowledge of hardware. Whilst in no way am I claiming to be an expert, I feel that an academic like Farish A. Noor could have done a better job with his homework instead of writing such a shallow, sensationalist piece which does not tell the whole story but does gain public attention.
The only 'game changer' - something that would really change the regional strategic equation would be if a country introduced the land attack version of the Brahmos or something similiar. It is for this reason that Singapore already has plans to get the Patriot if it has too. Indonesia in the mid-1990's had already expressed a public interest in Scuds...
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Its not just the Brahmos, Lan. The latest version of the Harpoons and Exocets also have land attack capability although it is not comparable to the Brahmos or the Storm Shadow